Integration, convergence, or dismantling of the system? Scenario solutions in the development of vocational education: 2020–2035

Abstract

The article presents a set of possible scenario solutions that provide variable ways of development of Federal and regional systems of professional education in the Russian Federation for the long term. Some solutions may be related to maintaining the existing status of secondary vocational education as a special type and level of educational programs implemented on the basis of a special type of educational organizations (technical schools,colleges). Other solutions involve more or less close integrationof professional and General, professional and higher education,or the construction of public-private models of professional education. Each scenario solution has certain advantages and risks,while the choice of development paths should take into accountexternal scenario conditions, which may also be different (for example: transition to a post-industrial economy or new industrialization; liberalization of economic policy or strengthening of the role of the state, etc.). Consideration of the fan of possible scenario solutions allows us to more clearly identify the socio-economic potential of vocational education, which is currently not fully realized, to determine the desired state and ways to move in the chosen direction